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Economic Spillovers, Structural Reforms and Policy Coordination in the Euro Area
Bas van Aarle, Klaus Weyerstrass
Verlag Physica-Verlag, 2007
ISBN 9783790819700 , 235 Seiten
Format PDF, OL
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Preface
6
Contents
7
Contributors
10
1 Economic spillovers, structural reforms and policy coordination in the Euro Area: An overview
11
1.1 Introduction
11
1.2 A working definition of spillovers
13
1.3 Overview of the literature
16
1.4 Overview of the main results
23
1.5 Policy implications and avenues for further research
27
References
32
2 Budgetary spillovers and short-term interest rates
36
2.1 Introduction
36
2.2 Methodology and literature
37
2.3 Fiscal spillovers at the aggregate Euro Area level
39
2.4 Fiscal spillovers in the Euro Area at the country level
45
2.5 Conclusion
58
Appendix: Characteristics of the dataset
59
References
61
3 Budgetary spillovers and long-term interest rates
63
3.1 Introduction
63
3.2 Deficits and interest rates: is there any robust evidence?
65
3.2.1 Static versus dynamic models
65
3.2.2 Capital flows and crowding out in open economies
69
3.2.3 Monetary integration and crowding out
70
3.3 A stock-flow fiscal VAR for open economies
71
3.4 Crowding-out effects of fiscal policies
81
3.5 Spillovers of fiscal policies
82
3.5.1 Relative fiscal shocks and relative crowding out
83
3.5.2 Crowding out in small open economies
88
3.5.3 Robustness checks
101
3.6 Conclusion
102
Appendix A: Domestic economy: SVAR models with exogenous debt ratio
105
Appendix B: SVAR models with yield
106
References
109
4 Budgetary stabilisation and the level of public debt
115
4.1 Introduction
115
4.2 A look at fiscal theory and empirics
116
4.3 Threshold regression models
120
4.4 Data description and regression set-up
123
4.5 Results
125
4.6 Conclusion
130
Appendix A: Data sources and definitions
130
Appendix B: ADF unit root tests
132
Appendix C
132
Appendix D: Years above the threshold
133
References
134
5 Spillovers from economic reform
136
5.1 Introduction
136
5.2 Determination of mark-up ratios
137
5.3 Mark-up and macroeconomic performance
144
5.3.1 Total factor productivity growth
144
5.3.2 Employment
147
5.3.3 Unemployment rate
149
5.3.4 Labour productivity growth
150
5.4 The influence of regulation on the mark-up
152
5.5 Conclusion
157
Appendix: Data sources and definitions
159
References
160
6 Macroeconomic and welfare effects of structural and budgetary policies: spillovers in the MSG3 model
162
6.1 Introduction
162
6.2 Effects of structural policies
163
6.3 Budgetary consolidation policies
169
6.4 Structural reform and budgetary consolidation
183
6.5 Sensitivity analysis: monetary versus inflation targeting
192
6.6 Welfare Effects
198
Appendix: The MSG3 Macroeconomic Global Model
205
References
208
7 Have Europe’s labour markets become more flexible? An exercise in measuring the relative flexibility of wages across countries and time
209
7.1 Introduction
209
7.2 Methodology: The analytic background and estimation technique
211
7.3 The empirical evidence on wage flexibility
213
7.4 Statistical results
214
7.5 The benchmark and indicators of wage flexibility
217
7.6 The US wages spectrum
220
7.7 Country by country results
221
7.8 Conclusion
229
Appendix: Time frequency techniques and the estimation of time- varying spectra or cross- spectra
230
References
235
Index
239
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