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Economic Spillovers, Structural Reforms and Policy Coordination in the Euro Area

Economic Spillovers, Structural Reforms and Policy Coordination in the Euro Area

von: Bas van Aarle, Klaus Weyerstrass

Physica-Verlag, 2007

ISBN: 9783790819700 , 235 Seiten

Format: PDF, OL

Kopierschutz: Wasserzeichen

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Economic Spillovers, Structural Reforms and Policy Coordination in the Euro Area


 

Preface

6

Contents

7

Contributors

10

1 Economic spillovers, structural reforms and policy coordination in the Euro Area: An overview

11

1.1 Introduction

11

1.2 A working definition of spillovers

13

1.3 Overview of the literature

16

1.4 Overview of the main results

23

1.5 Policy implications and avenues for further research

27

References

32

2 Budgetary spillovers and short-term interest rates

36

2.1 Introduction

36

2.2 Methodology and literature

37

2.3 Fiscal spillovers at the aggregate Euro Area level

39

2.4 Fiscal spillovers in the Euro Area at the country level

45

2.5 Conclusion

58

Appendix: Characteristics of the dataset

59

References

61

3 Budgetary spillovers and long-term interest rates

63

3.1 Introduction

63

3.2 Deficits and interest rates: is there any robust evidence?

65

3.2.1 Static versus dynamic models

65

3.2.2 Capital flows and crowding out in open economies

69

3.2.3 Monetary integration and crowding out

70

3.3 A stock-flow fiscal VAR for open economies

71

3.4 Crowding-out effects of fiscal policies

81

3.5 Spillovers of fiscal policies

82

3.5.1 Relative fiscal shocks and relative crowding out

83

3.5.2 Crowding out in small open economies

88

3.5.3 Robustness checks

101

3.6 Conclusion

102

Appendix A: Domestic economy: SVAR models with exogenous debt ratio

105

Appendix B: SVAR models with yield

106

References

109

4 Budgetary stabilisation and the level of public debt

115

4.1 Introduction

115

4.2 A look at fiscal theory and empirics

116

4.3 Threshold regression models

120

4.4 Data description and regression set-up

123

4.5 Results

125

4.6 Conclusion

130

Appendix A: Data sources and definitions

130

Appendix B: ADF unit root tests

132

Appendix C

132

Appendix D: Years above the threshold

133

References

134

5 Spillovers from economic reform

136

5.1 Introduction

136

5.2 Determination of mark-up ratios

137

5.3 Mark-up and macroeconomic performance

144

5.3.1 Total factor productivity growth

144

5.3.2 Employment

147

5.3.3 Unemployment rate

149

5.3.4 Labour productivity growth

150

5.4 The influence of regulation on the mark-up

152

5.5 Conclusion

157

Appendix: Data sources and definitions

159

References

160

6 Macroeconomic and welfare effects of structural and budgetary policies: spillovers in the MSG3 model

162

6.1 Introduction

162

6.2 Effects of structural policies

163

6.3 Budgetary consolidation policies

169

6.4 Structural reform and budgetary consolidation

183

6.5 Sensitivity analysis: monetary versus inflation targeting

192

6.6 Welfare Effects

198

Appendix: The MSG3 Macroeconomic Global Model

205

References

208

7 Have Europe’s labour markets become more flexible? An exercise in measuring the relative flexibility of wages across countries and time

209

7.1 Introduction

209

7.2 Methodology: The analytic background and estimation technique

211

7.3 The empirical evidence on wage flexibility

213

7.4 Statistical results

214

7.5 The benchmark and indicators of wage flexibility

217

7.6 The US wages spectrum

220

7.7 Country by country results

221

7.8 Conclusion

229

Appendix: Time frequency techniques and the estimation of time- varying spectra or cross- spectra

230

References

235

Index

239