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OECD Economic Surveys: Denmark - Volume 2008 Issue 2
von: OECD (Ed.)
OECD Paris, 2008
ISBN: 9789264045941, 199 Seiten
Format: PDF, OL
Preis: 42,84 EUR
Table of contents
4
Basic statistics of Denmark
8
Executive summary
9
Assessment and recommendations
12
Chapter 1. Key challenges for the Danish economy
22
The risk of overheating requires urgent attention
23
Monetary conditions have driven the housing market
24
Figure 1.1. Taylor rule interest rates for Denmark and euro area countries
24
Figure 1.2. House prices and mortgage debt
25
The labour market is heating up
26
Short-term outlook
26
Table 1.1. Short-term economic outlook for Denmark
27
How strong will overheating become and how should economic policy respond?
27
Figure 1.3. Actual versus structural fiscal balance and revenue
29
A structural assessment of the Danish economy
29
Figure 1.4. GDP per capita and why it differs across countries
31
Employment rates and hours worked
30
Figure 1.5. Total labour supply is around average
32
Productivity
30
Figure 1.6. Productivity growth 1966-2006
33
Table 1.2. Relative size and productivity growth of the main economic sectors
34
Figure 1.7. Productivity growth within sectors and from reallocation across sectors
34
Medium-term outlook and challenges
34
Table 1.3. Medium term scenario – in the absence of further reform
35
The 2015 medium-term fiscal strategy should be welcomed
35
Figure 1.8. Debt has fallen more than planned, but consumption has grown more than planned
36
Distortions to labour supply from income benefits and taxation
37
Figure 1.9. Adults living from passive income benefits or participating in labour market programmes
38
Figure 1.10. Top marginal tax wedge on labour
39
Globalisation
39
Figure 1.11. Trade specialisation
40
Figure 1.12. Educational attainment and employment among foreign-born and natives
42
Figure 1.13. Learning outcomes in compulsory education
43
Publicly funded services
43
Figure 1.14. Age distribution of public and private employment
44
Figure 1.15. Relative earnings in the public and private sector
45
Pension savings and capital taxation
46
Conclusions
46
Notes
46
Bibliography
47
Annex 1.A1. Progress in structural reform
49
Chapter 2. Fiscal strategy: keeping with the targets
54
What can be learnt from the successful fiscal management of the past 25 years?
55
Figure 2.1. Fiscal consolidations and relaxations since the 1970s
56
The new 2015 Strategy
57
Figure 2.2. Long-term development of public finances implied by the 2015 Strategy
58
Is fiscal policy sustainable?
59
Box 2.1. The Danish fiscal sustainability indicator
60
Operational targets for fiscal policy
61
Box 2.2. Operational targets and requirements in the 2015 Strategy
62
The role of wage and benefit indexation and the tax freeze
61
Are the mechanisms to ensure that targets are adhered to strong enough?
63
Box 2.3. Sweden’s fiscal rules and institutions
65
The tendency for municipal and regional overspending should be stemmed
64
How should the government’s balance sheet be managed?
67
Table 2.1. Consolidated general government balance sheet, end of year 1994 and 2006
68
Balance sheet analysis and debt reduction
68
Asset accumulation
70
Box 2.4. Interest rate risk management of the government debt portfolio
70
Conclusions
72
Box 2.5. Recommendations regarding the medium-term fiscal strategy
72
Notes
72
Bibliography
73
Chapter 3. Promoting employment and inclusiveness
76
What is happening on the labour market in the current boom?
77
Figure 3.1. Labour market indicators
78
Figure 3.2. Bottlenecks in employment
78
Figure 3.3. Composition of wages growth
79
The NAIRU and the Phillips curve
79
NAIRU estimates
79
Figure 3.4. Actual and structural unemployment rates
79
Box 3.1. NAIRU estimates for Denmark
80
What factors explain the fall in the NAIRU?
80
Figure 3.5. Incidence of long term unemployment
82
Table 3.1. Total inflow of workers and workers from the new EU member states
83
The labour share and industry composition
84
Figure 3.6. Labour share across countries
84
Figure 3.7. Labour share in Denmark
85
Box 3.2. The labour share and industry composition
85
How to support the current expansion and achieve the jobs required by the 2015 Strategy
86
Who are getting jobs and who are not?
87
Figure 3.8. Change in employment-to-population ratios
87
Table 3.2. Transfer payment recipients, 2005
88
Box 3.3. The government’s job plan
88
Active labour market programmes
89
Table 3.3. Participants in active labour market programs
90
Box 3.4. Job centres in the new municipal structure
92
Unemployment benefits
92
Measures targeted at older workers
93
Measures to increase immigration
94
Measures targeted at students
95
Other measures
95
Conclusions
95
Box 3.5. Recommendations regarding employment and capacity constraints
95
Notes
96
Bibliography
97
Annex 3.A1. Labour market statistics: Register data and the Labour Force Survey
99
Figure 3.A1.1. Comparison of labour market data from the Labour Force Survey and CRAM
100
Annex 3.A2. Phillips curve estimation
102
Table 3.A2.1. Phillips curve estimation – empirical results
104
Figure 3.A2.1. NAIRU estimates
104
Annex 3.A3. Labour share equation estimation
105
Table 3.A3.1. Labour share and value added share by industry
106
Table 3.A3.2. Labour share equations
108
Chapter 4. Tax reform, hours worked and growth
110
The 2004 and the 2008-09 income tax reductions
111
Box 4.1. The 2008-09 income tax reductions
111
Table 4.1. Labour supply effects of the tax measures as estimated by the government
112
Figure 4.1. Marginal tax wedges
113
How much do income taxes matter for hours worked?
114
Figure 4.2. Average hours worked and marginal tax wedges over recent decades
114
Box 4.2. Cross-country estimation results for taxes and hours worked
115
Figure 4.3. Simulated effect on women’s labour supply of lowering marginal tax rates to Australian levels
116
How much do income taxes matter for other drivers of economic growth and welfare?
117
Table 4.2. Top 10 countries for migration in and out of Denmark
118
Box 4.3. Undeclared work has a remarkable pattern
119
Undertaking tax reform – financing income tax cuts
120
Conclusions
121
Box 4.4. Recommendations regarding taxation and labour supply
121
Notes
122
Bibliography
122
Chapter 5. Health: a major fiscal challenge
124
Box 5.1. The Danish health system in a nutshell
125
Health status, lifestyle and access to care
125
Figure 5.1. Indicators of health status
126
The major killing diseases
127
Danish lifestyle
127
Figure 5.2. Lifestyle matters
128
Prevention
129
Access to healthcare and equity
129
Figure 5.3. Access to physicians is highly equitable
130
Spending on health and long-term care: What will the future bring?
130
Figure 5.4. Health care spending
131
Future cost and spending drivers
131
Table 5.1. Illustrative scenarios for public expenditures 2005-2050
132
Balancing public and private funding
135
Figure 5.5. Composition of healthcare spending and the extent of private funding
136
Patient copayments
135
Box 5.2. Co-payments for healthcare in Denmark
137
Private insurance and individual health savings accounts
137
Funding of long-term care
138
Figure 5.6. Older persons receiving long-term care
139
Table 5.2. Recipients of long-term care in Denmark
140
Figure 5.7. Older persons receiving long-term care and relation with female employment
141
Efficient care: human resources, incentives and coordinated technology adoption
141
Human resources and management
142
Figure 5.8. Health system resources
143
Table 5.3. Scenarios for labour supply and demand in public-service professions
144
Figure 5.9. Earnings of healthcare professionals
145
Productivity, contestability and incentives from funding mechanisms
146
Box 5.3. Activity-based funding, incentives and waiting times in healthcare
147
Figure 5.10. Waiting times, spending and incentives
147
Figure 5.11. Involvement of non-public providers in health and long-term care
149
Box 5.4. User choice among public and private service providers
149
Technology adoption and coordination across the health system
151
Figure 5.12. In-patient versus out-patient treatment and average length of hospital stays
152
Pharmaceuticals
152
Figure 5.13. Correlation of cost and volume movements for pharmaceuticals
153
Health and employment
154
Table 5.4. Sickness-related benefits and healthcare utilisation
154
Figure 5.14. Healthcare provision and disability benefit rates
155
Disease patterns and employment outcomes
156
Table 5.5. Medical conditions motivating disability benefits
156
Could the health system be made more responsive?
157
Are all benefit and subsidy schemes optimized from a social insurance perspective?
158
Conclusions
159
Box 5.5. Recommendations regarding health, healthcare and sickness-related employment problems
159
Notes
161
Bibliography
162
Annex 5.A1. Illustrative model for long-run trends: is healthcare spending driven by income or technology?
167
Annex 5.A2. Work-force initiatives in the June 2007 tri-party agreement and the quality strategy for public services
170
Chapter 6. Pension savings and capital taxation
172
Developments in pension savings
173
Figure 6.1. Contributions, assets and benefits paid in relation to private pension products
174
Table 6.1. Description of the Danish pension system
175
Box 6.1. The voluntary early retirement pension after the 2006 welfare agreement
176
Pension contributions
174
Table 6.2. Pension contributions
177
Figure 6.2. Gross savings and pension contributions
177
Pension income
178
Figure 6.3. Projected pension income
178
Table 6.3. Illustrative calculations of gross replacement rate by earnings
179
Figure 6.4. Illustrative calculations of components of the pension level and replacement rate
179
Flexibility and market openness
181
Box 6.2. Response to EU ruling on taxation of contributions to foreign pension funds
181
Choice of savings profile
182
Choice of insurance coverage
182
Choice of investment strategy
183
Choice of fund or provider
183
Consumer information
184
Taxation of pensions and other capital income
185
Figure 6.5. Country grouping according to the tax treatment of private pensions
185
Box 6.3. Effective tax rates on private capital pension and benchmark savings
186
Figure 6.6. Effective tax rates on private pension and benchmark savings
187
Table 6.4. Nominal and real tax rates for capital income
188
Tax treatment of negative capital income outside pension schemes
189
Conclusions
190
Box 6.4. Recommendations regarding pension savings and capital taxation
190
Notes
191
Bibliography
192
Annex 6.A1. What do operating costs say about pension funds’ efficiency?
194
Figure 6.A1.1. Pensions assets, 2006
194
Table 6.A1.1. Portfolio allocation in pension funds, 2006
196
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