Shifting Power in Asia-Pacific? - The Rise of China, Sino-US Competition and Regional Middle Power Allegiance

Acknowledgements

Contents

List of Abbreviations

Chapter 1: Opening the Floor: The Rivalry Between Eagle and Dragon in Asia-Pacific

1.1 Literature Overview: The Attested Struggle Between Giants

1.2 Tackling the Academic Void: Research Puzzle and Research Questions

1.3 Some Opening Words on Methodology and Research Design

References

Chapter 2: Theoretical Framework: Realism as a Lens for Analysis

2.1 Classical Realism

2.2 Structural Realism

2.3 The Core of Realist Theories

2.4 The Balance-of-Power Theory

2.5 International Cooperation in a Realist World

References

Chapter 3: Power in International Relations

3.1 Aggregate Understandings of Power

3.2 Relational Understandings of Power

3.3 Structural Understandings of Power

3.4 The Challenge of Measuring Power

3.5 The Continuing Relevance of Capabilities

References

Chapter 4: Towards a Middle Power Theory in International Relations

4.1 Great Powers

4.2 Middle Powers

4.3 The Role of Middle Powers in Understanding Shifts in Relational Power

References

Chapter 5: Taking Stock of Asia-Pacific´s Tangible Power Changes: Measuring Aggregate Power

5.1 An Index of Aggregate Power: The Cline Formula

5.1.1 Critical Mass

5.1.2 Economic Capabilities

5.1.3 Military Capabilities

5.1.4 Strategic Purpose and National Will

5.2 Reconceptualising and Refining the Cline Formula: Modelling a New Composite Indicator on Aggregate Power (CIAP)

5.2.1 Standardisation

5.2.2 Weighting and Grouping

5.2.3 Aggregation and Sensitivity Testing

5.3 Adding Empirical Flesh to Theoretical Bones: Calculating the CIAP

5.3.1 Critical Mass

5.3.2 Economic Capabilities

5.3.2.1 Gross National Product

5.3.2.2 Domestic Energy Supply and External Energy Dependence

5.3.2.3 Critical Nonfuel Minerals

5.3.2.4 Industrial Strength

5.3.2.5 Food Production and Dependency

5.3.2.6 Trade

5.3.3 Military Capabilities

5.3.4 Strategic Purpose and National Will

5.4 Assembling the CIAP

5.5 Summary and Evaluation of Findings

References

Chapter 6: Determining the (Almost) Intangible: Measuring Relational Power

6.1 Defining Measures for Comparative Case Studies in Mixed-Method Research on Relational Power

6.2 Neither Small Nor Great: Identifying Middle Powers in Asia-Pacific

References

Chapter 7: Australia: Trading with the Dragon, But Flying with the Eagle

7.1 Australia as a Middle Power

7.1.1 Economic Development

7.1.2 Foreign Policy

7.1.3 Security Profile

7.2 Australia´s Relations with the United States

7.3 Australia´s Relations with China

7.4 Analysis: Shifting Allegiance?

References

Chapter 8: Pakistan: `Iron Brother´ to Beijing, Reluctant Partner for Washington

8.1 Pakistan as a Middle Power

8.1.1 Economic Development

8.1.2 Foreign Policy

8.1.3 Security Profile

8.2 Pakistan´s Relations with the United States

8.3 Pakistan´s Relations with China

8.4 Analysis: Shifting Allegiance?

References

Chapter 9: Japan: Warm Ties to Washington, `Cold Politics´ with Beijing

9.1 Japan as a Middle Power

9.1.1 Economic Development

9.1.2 Foreign Policy

9.1.3 Security Profile

9.2 Japan´s Relations with the United States

9.3 Japan´s Relations with China

9.4 Analysis: Shifting Allegiance?

References

Chapter 10: The Republic of Korea: No Longer a Small `Shrimp Among Whales´

10.1 The ROK as a Middle Power

10.1.1 Economic Development

10.1.2 Foreign Policy

10.1.3 Security Profile

10.2 The ROK´s Relations with the United States

10.3 The ROK´s Relations with China

10.4 Analysis: Shifting Allegiance?

References

Chapter 11: Thailand: Bending with the Wind Again?

11.1 Thailand as a Middle Power

11.1.1 Economic Development

11.1.2 Foreign Policy

11.1.3 Security Profile

11.2 Thailand´s Relations with the United States

11.3 Thailand´s Relations with China

11.4 Analysis-Shifting Allegiance?

References

Chapter 12: Indonesia: Rowing Between Two Reefs Once More

12.1 Indonesia as a Middle Power

12.1.1 Economic Development

12.1.2 Foreign Policy

12.1.3 Security Profile

12.2 Indonesia´s Relations with the United States

12.3 Indonesia´s Relations with China

12.4 Analysis: Shifting Allegiance?

References

Chapter 13: Conclusion: Does `Rising´ in Power Equate to `Shifting´ of Power?

References