Financial Crisis in Eastern Europe - Road to Recovery

Foreword

Preface

Overview

List of Abbreviations

The World Financial Crisis

The Great Subprime Credit Crisisand its Impact on Eastern Europe

1. Introduction

2. The Great Subprime CreditCrisis and its Global Impact

2.1. The Causes of the Subprime Credit Crisis

2.1.1. Politicians Assisted in Creating the Subprime Monster

2.1.2. Central Banks Fuelled the Crisis

2.1.3. The Necessary Toolset

2.1.4. The Case of AIG

2.1.5. The Monolines

2.1.6. The Low Interest Rate Environment and the Demandfor Higher Yield

2.1.7. The Need to Deleverage

2.1.8. The Fiction of the Strong US Borrower and PredatoryLending Practices

2.1.9. The Rating Agencies Were Driving through theRear-view Mirror

2.1.10. The Markowitz Hypothesis

2.1.11. Moral Hazard in the Financial System

2.2. How the Subprime Crisis Developed to aGlobal Credit Crunch

2.2.1. The Magnitude of the Credit Crisis

2.2.2. How the Crisis in Subprime Debt Infected Other Markets

2.2.3. Hedge Funds and other Near-Banks

3. The Impact of the Subprime CreditCrisis in Eastern Europe

3.1. The Rise and Fall of the Countries inthe Region

3.2. The Role of the Government to Fight Backthe Crisis

Specific Areas of Crisisin Eastern Europe

Bulgaria:The Deferred Crisis

1. Situation before the Crisis

1.1. Retrospective Overview

1.1.1. The Decade of Downfall post 1989

1.1.2. The Boom Decade

1.2. Financial Status of the Private Sector

1.3. Financial Status of the Public Sector

1.4. Development Status of the Real Economy

1.4.1. Development Status of the Bank Sector

1.4.2. Development Status of Other Sectors

2. The Impact of the World Financial Crisis(2008/2009/2010)

2.1. Outline of the Expansion of the Crisis inBulgaria

2.2. Domestic Impact

2.2.1. Private Sector Recession

2.2.2. Governmental Involvement

2.3. Foreign Impact

3. Challenges and Coping with theFinancial Crisis

3.1. Fiscal Measures

3.2. Macroeconomic Stimulation Measures

4. Outlook for the Coming Years

4.1. Pro-cyclical and Anti-cyclical Effects

4.2. Fiscal Prospects

4.3. Prospects for the Real Economy

Czech Republic:Crisis Postponed – Navigation toRecovery

1. Situation before the Crisis

1.1. Methodology

1.2. Economic Development

1.2.1. The Lean Years of Economic Transformation

1.2.2. The Fat Years Before the Crisis

1.2.3. Bountiful Years Just Before the Crisis

2. The Impact of the World Financial Crisis(2008/2009/2010)

2.1. Economic Development in 2008, 2009 and2010

2.1.1. So Far So Good – Year 2008 and the Onset of Global Crisis

2.1.2. 2009 – The First Year of Crisis

2.1.3. Development in the First Quarter of 2010

2.2. Banking and Financial Crisis in the CzechRepublic

2.2.1. Development of Czech Banking System

2.2.2. Interest Rate Development

2.2.3. Credit Availability

2.2.4. Czech Currency Development

2.2.5. Maastricht Criteria

2.2.6. Stock Market Developments

2.3. Mortgage Lending Crisis in the Crisis

2.3.1. Mortgage Loans in the Czech Republic

2.3.2. Mortgage Market Evolution from 1995 to 2007

2.3.3. Impact of the Crisis on the Mortgage Market and LatestDevelopments

3. Challenges and Coping the FinancialCrisis

3.1. Anti-crisis Measures in the Czech Republic

3.2. Political Landscape of the CR during theEconomic Crisis

3.3. Summary and Comments on SelectedAnti-crisis Measures

3.4. Anti-Crisis Measures in Government EconomicPolicy

3.4.1. Anti-Crisis Measures Adopted by Previous Government

3.4.2. Existing Anti-Crisis Measures

3.5. Pension Reform and the Crisis

3.6. Other Crisis Exit Options – Nerv

3.7. Conclusions, Challenges and the Lessonsdrawn from the Economic Crisis

4. Outlook for the Coming Years

Hungary:A Country Hit Hard

1. Situation before the Crisis

1.1. Recent Historical Developments andtheir Effects on the Economy

1.2. Political Situation – A Prime Minister “UnderPressure”

1.3. Economic Situation

1.3.1. State Budget Deficit

1.3.2. Inflation

1.3.3. GDP growth

1.3.4. Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

1.3.5. Unemployment Rate

1.3.6. Exchange Rate Development vis-à-vis the Euro

1.3.7. Social Situation – Demonstrations Against the Government

1.3.8. First Signs of a Crisis

2. The Impact of the World Financial Crisis(2008/2009/2010)

2.1. The Year 2008

2.1.1. Political Situation – Missing Awareness of the Crisis’ Depth

2.1.2. Economic Situation – High Deficit and the Hungarian Forint“Under Attack”

2.1.3. Social Situation

2.2. The Year 2009

2.2.1. Political Situation – New PM with Dwindling Support forStrict Austerity Measures

2.2.2. Economical Situation

2.2.3. Social Situation – People Angry about Corruption Scandals

2.3. The Year 2010 – Current Situation

2.3.1. Political Situation – New Confidence among Politicians /No Comparison to Greece

2.3.2. Economical Situation – First Signs of a Slight Recovery?

2.3.3. Social Situation – Positive Aspects out of the Crisis?

3. Challenges and Coping with theFinancial Crisis

3.1. Economic Policy Objectives

3.2. Characteristics of the IMF/EU rescuepackage 2008

3.3. Major Endeavours and Measures in2008/2009/2010 to Fight the NegativeImpacts of the Crisis

3.3.1. Employment Policy

3.3.2. Major State Aids and Private Investment Projectsin Hungary

3.3.3. Measures in 2010 Budget According to the Updated ConvergenceProgramme of Hungary for 2009-2012

4. Outlook for the Coming Years

Lithuania:The Return of Opportunities

1. Situation before the Crisis

1.1. Lithuania’s Journey into the Global Economyfrom 1991 to 1999

1.2. The Preparations for Entry to the EU –From 2000 to 2004

1.3. Development of Selected Economic Sectorsfrom 2004 Onwards

1.3.1. The Property Sector and Construction Industry

1.3.2. Foreign Trade

1.3.3. Banking Industry and Bank Lending

1.3.4. Industry

1.4. Economic Overview

1.4.1. GDP and the Rate of Inflation

1.4.2. Public Finances

1.5. Fiscal Situation

1.5.1. Corporation Tax

1.5.2. Income Tax

1.5.3. Value Added Tax

1.5.4. Other taxes

1.6. Labour and Social Policy in the Boom Years

1.6.1. Wage Costs

1.6.2. Unemployment Figures

1.6.3. Social Security

2. The Impact of the World Financial Crisis(2008/2009/2010)

2.1. Selected Economic Sectors

2.1.1. The Property Sector and Construction Industry

2.1.2. Foreign Trade

2.1.3. Banking Industry and Bank Lending

2.1.4. Industry and the Domestic Market

2.2. Economic Overview

2.2.1. GDP and the Rate of Inflation

2.2.2. Public Finances

2.3. Employment and Social Affairs

2.3.1. Wage Costs

2.3.2. Job Market

2.3.3. Child and Youth Poverty

3. Challenges and Coping with theFinancial Crisis

3.1. Challenges of the Financial Crisis

3.1.1. Pegged Exchange Rates

3.1.2. Inflation

3.1.3. Job Market

3.1.4. Migration

3.1.5. Banking System

3.1.6. Insolvencies

3.1.7. Downrating from Credit Rating Agencies

3.2. Challenges of the Financial Crisis

3.2.1. Job Market

3.2.2. Taxation

3.2.3. Social Security Insurance

3.2.4. Law

3.2.5. Further Measures

4. Outlook for the Coming Years

4.1. Accession to the Monetary Union

4.2. Current Economic Data and Forecasts

4.3. Developments and the Outlook for IndividualIndustries

4.4. Conclusion

Poland:(Po)Land of Opportunity

1. Situation before the Crisis

1.1. Poland – Location, Political System

1.2. Economic Situation of Poland before theFinancial Crisis

1.2.1. Construction

1.2.2. Trade

1.2.3. Industry

1.3. Financial Situation in Poland

1.4. Labour Market

2. The Impact of the World Financial Crisis(2008/2009/2010)

2.1. Macroeconomic Consequences of theEconomic Crisis in Poland

2.1.1. Construction

2.1.2. Trade

2.1.3. Industry

2.2. Economic Crisis and the Financial Situation inPoland in the Years 2008-2010

2.3. Labour Market

3. Challenges and Coping with theFinancial Crisis

3.1. Rescue Package for the EU Economy

3.2. Actions of the Polish Government toCounteract the Consequences of theEconomic Crisis

3.2.1. Government’s Anti-Crisis Plan

3.2.2. Anti-Crisis Package

3.2.3. State Aid in Repayment of Housing Loans

3.3. Counteracting the Crisis in Poland

3.3.1. Actions of the National Bank of Poland and the MonetaryPolicy Council

3.3.2. Actions of the Financial Supervision Authority

4. Outlook for the Coming Years

4.1. ‘Polska 2030 – Wyzwania rozwojowe’ Report

4.2. Euro 2012 – European Football Championship

4.3. Investment Attractiveness of Poland

4.4. Polish Presidency of the Council of theEuropean Union – 2011

4.5. Europe 2020: New Economic Strategy forEurope as an Opportunity for Poland?

Romania:Politics do matter

1. Situation before the Crisis1

1.1. Country Profile

1.2. The Lost Decade 1990-2000

1.3. Economic Growth and Social Change

1.3.1. The Turn-Around 2000-2004

1.3.2. Accession boost and growing imbalances 2005-2008

2. The Impact of the World Financial Crisis(2008/2009/2010)

2.1. Crisis – Sudden and Fierce

2.2. Structural Problems Revealed

3. Challenges and Coping with theFinancial Crisis

3.1. Late Recognition and Shiftless Reactions

3.2. Politics under Supervision: Romaniaand the IMF

4. Outlook for the Coming Years

4.1. Short Term: Recovery – Visible but Fragile

4.2. Long Term Perspectives

Russian Federation:The Rocky Road

1. Situation before the Crisis

1.1. Russia’s Economy Rising

1.1.1. Transformation to Capitalism – Breaking down the SovietSystem

1.1.2. Structure Changes and Free Capacity

1.1.3. Energy Sector

1.1.4. Putin’s Reforms

1.2. Overdependence on Oil and Gas

1.3. Financial Situation

1.3.1. The Banking System Vulnerabilities are Rising

1.4. Did the Growth Decade of 1999-2008 Benefitthe Average Russian?

1.4.1. Domestic Credit

2. The Impact of the World Financial Crisis(2008/2009/2010)

2.1. General Impact

2.2. Russian Specifics

2.3. Impact of Crisis Policies

3. Challenges and Coping the FinancialCrisis in Russia

3.1. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

3.2. Fiscal Policies to Preserve Social Peace, notInfrastructure

3.3. Structural Weaknesses, uneven GeographicalImpact

4. Outlook for the Coming Years

4.1. Investment in Oil

4.2. GDP

4.3. Fiscal Debt

4.4. Labour Markets

4.5. Population and Immigration

Serbia:Serial Tensions amidst Recovery

1. Situation before the Crisis

1.1. Political and Historical Turmoil

1.2. Recovering Years before the Crisis

1.2.1. Economic Situation

1.2.2. Financial Situation

1.3. Having Broken the Back on the Growth Path?

2. The Impact of the World Financial Crisis(2008/2009/2010)

2.1. Contamination of Serbia

2.2. Economic Crisis

2.2.1. Macroeconomic Developments

2.2.2. Balance of Payments and Trade

2.2.3. Foreign Direct Investment

2.2.4. Labour Market Flows

2.3. Financial Crisis

2.3.1. Attempt to the Financial Sector

2.3.2. The Serbian Dinar – Implications for a Currency Crisis

2.3.3. Financial Positioning

3. Challenges and Coping with theFinancial Crisis

3.1. Serbia on the Tightrope Walk

3.2. Financial Aid from the IMF

3.3. Contribution from the European Economy

3.3.1. European Union

3.3.2. European Investment Bank

3.3.3. European Bank for Reconstruction and Development

3.4. Anti-crisis Measures by the Government andthe Policy Response to the Crisis

3.4.1. Financial Sector Policy

3.4.2. Governmental package of measures

3.5. Further Assistance by the World Bank

4. Outlook for the Coming Years

4.1. Potential for Serbia as an EU Member State

4.2. Navigating Challenges Ahead – Outlook 2015

Slovakia:Small Land of Big Changes

1. Situation before the Crisis

1.1. Political and Economic Background of theSlovak Republic before the Global Crisis

1.2. Democratic Forces Gain Political Power afterParliamentary Elections in 1998 – PositiveTurnaround in among others Economic Policy

1.3. Period 2002-2007:Slovakia – Economic Tiger in CEE Area

1.4. Euro Adoption in Slovak Republic

2. The Impact of the World Financial Crisis(2008/2009/2010)

2.1. End of 2008 – First Signs of Crisis in Slovakia –only a Slow-down of Growth?

2.2. Beginning of 2009 – the Negative Impact ofthe Crisis Exceeds even the Most PessimisticScenarios

2.3. Banking Sector

2.3.1. Banking Sector before the Onset of Crisis

2.3.2. Banking Sector at the Time of the World Crisis

2.4. Labour Market

2.4.1. Development of the Enemployment Rate During Crisis

2.4.2. Development of Average Wage During Crisis

2.5. Development on the Real Estate Marketand in the Area of Mortgage Loans(Mortgage Banking)

2.5.1. Real Estate and its Development

2.5.2. Mortgage Financing in Slovakia – Fast Growth before theCrisis and Swift Reactions to the Immediate Situation atthe Time of Economic Crisis

3. Challenges and Coping with theFinancial Crisis

3.1. Measures Concerning Finances and Economy

3.1.1. Stabilization Aid for Banks

3.1.2. The Program of Providing Help to Citizens who areDefaulting on Housing Loans

3.2. Measures Concerning Business

3.3. Measures Concerning Employment

3.3.1. New contributions in order to preserve existing jobs andcreate new employment

3.3.2. Contribution for the Graduate Practice

3.3.3. Contribution for Self-Employment

3.3.4. Public finances

3.3.5. Business Environment

3.3.6. Investments and..Regional Development

3.4. Regional Differences and their Elimination –Even a Bigger Challenge after the Impact ofthe Global Crisis

3.4.1. Regional Differences in Unemployment and..AverageWages during the Crisis

3.4.2. Real Estate

4. Outlook for the Coming Years

Ukraine:Impact and Recovery from the Crisis

1. Situation before the Crisis

1.1. Economic Environment in Ukraine

1.2. Political Instability and Tax Burden

1.3. Conclusions

2. The Impact of the World Financial Crisis(2008/2009/2010)

2.1. Consequences of the Financial Crisis on theUkrainian Economy

2.2. Banking Sector Developments in the Ukraineduring the Economic Crisis

2.3. The Deep Fall of the Ukrainian ConstructionIndustry

2.4. Measures to Overcome the Economic Crisis

3. Challenges and Coping with theFinancial Crisis

3.1. Anti-Crisis Measures in Banking and FinanceSectors

3.1.1. Prevention of pre-term Deposits Repayment

3.1.2. Lending Activity

3.1.3. Refinancing of Banks

3.1.4. Recapitalization of Banks

3.1.5. Currency Regulation

3.2. Anti-Crisis Measures in Housing ConstructionSector

3.3. Crisis Related Alteration to Foreign InvestmentRegime

3.4. Anti-Crisis measures in Labour Market

3.5. Anti-Crisis alteration of Tax and CustomsLegislation

4. Outlook for the Coming Years

4.1. Defining Potential

4.2. Renewable Energy Opening Up New Fields forInvestments?

4.3. Boosting of Investments and Integrating withthe European Community due to HostingUEFA EUR 2012?

4.4. Obtaining the IMF Loan to Deal with LocalReforms and External Market Risks?

4.5. Increasing other Institutional and CommercialBorrowing?

4.6. Export of Steel and Grain Still Key Factors ofBoosting Ukraine’s Economy?

4.7. Force of Mergers and Acquisitions,Cooperation and Privatization Coming Back?

4.8. Modelling New Tax Code and Paying off VATRefund?

4.9. Banks on Earning Road Again?

4.10. Hryvna Exchange Rate Getting Floating toPower Inflation?

4.11. Consumers Supporting the Economy?

4.12. Conclusion

Epilogue

Financial Crisis in Eastern Europe:Road to Recovery

Editors` Vita

Authors` Vita